5 days ago
Defense to take top billing at U.S.-South Korea summit as Trump eyes alliance reset
After agreeing on a trade deal framework with South Korea, the White House's focus is now expected to shift to reorienting defense ties with Seoul as the two countries' leaders prepare to meet in Washington this month for a summit that could reset their military alliance.
Defense and security will be the primary focus of the first summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean leader Lee Jae Myung, observers say, as Washington looks to Seoul to play a bigger role in its the United States' China strategy.
'The consensus across the Korean political spectrum is that tariff and economic issues were merely the 'appetizer,' while defense represents the main course,' said Seong-hyon Lee, a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations.
On the surface, the summit is expected to highlight economic ties, as the two leaders finalize the details of a trade deal reached in late July that saw Washington agree to lowering a threatened 25% tariff on South Korean imports to 15% in return for massive investments in the U.S. and the opening of the Asian powerhouse's markets.
Yet behind the scenes, the allies are likely to discuss a range of defense and foreign policy issues amid efforts to 'modernize' the alliance, observers say.
The White House is expected to focus on reorienting the alliance toward countering China while pressuring Seoul to hike defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product and pay more for the upkeep of about 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea.
'Trump's focus has been on making money from America's defense treaty commitments, literally seeking to make a profit off U.S. servicemembers stationed in South Korea and Japan during his first term,' said Bruce Klingner, an expert on the Koreas and senior fellow at the Mansfield Foundation.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung delivers a speech during a news conference to mark his first 30 days in office at the Blue House in Seoul on July 3. |
Pool / via REUTERS
Lee, he added, will likely face 'intense U.S. pressure' to increase spending and accept more of a focus on China — in effect a downgrade of Washington's commitment to fulfill its treaty obligations toward South Korea.
'The term 'modernizing the alliance' serves as a diplomatic euphemism,' the Bush Foundation's Lee said.
From the perspective of key U.S. strategists, he explained, the U.S.-South Korea alliance in its current form represents 'a Cold War relic' fixated on a secondary threat. Modernization, therefore, means repurposing the alliance to serve the United States' 21st-century strategic priority of confronting China.
'Washington views the U.S. troops in South Korea as hostages to the North Korean threat, so they now want these assets to have the strategic flexibility to address China.'
This isn't a 'reset' but rather a complete 're-tasking of the alliance,' said Lee, adding that the Trump administration will likely heap pressure on Seoul regarding its potential role in any Taiwan emergency. More concretely, this means Washington may seek a more tangible commitment from Seoul on supporting U.S. military operations in the event war breaks out with China over the self-ruled island.
As for South Korea's objectives, analysts say that President Lee will likely push for a reaffirmation of U.S. extended nuclear deterrence, while asking for a firm commitment that U.S. troop levels — and their role in the country — will remain unchanged. Efforts to revitalize engagement with Pyongyang are also expected to be prioritized.
The exact date of the summit, which many view as a test of Lee's credibility and diplomatic skills, has yet to be released, but Trump announced at the end of July that it would take place within the following two weeks while Seoul said that preparations were already underway and would not be delayed until next month.
According to South Korean media, the summit could take place on Aug. 25, 82 days after Lee took office on June 4.
'The big question for the two sides at this summit is where there will be alignment and divergences,' a source with deep ties to the alliance said on condition of anonymity.
Activists protest against U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs policy near the U.S. Embassy in Seoul on July 31. |
REUTERS
The Trump administration has a security policy direction for the Indo-Pacific that is driven heavily by the Pentagon's No. 2, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby.
The administration, the source noted, 'will continue to move out unilaterally' to redirect forces to deter China while seeking allies' support for that effort.
Before taking office, Colby had said in an interview that the United States' should focus on the "decisive" threat from China, calling for an overhaul of the U.S. military in South Korea to make that command "more relevant" to handling China-related emergencies.
Considering these views, South Korea's Lee is likely to find himself stuck between a rock and a hard place as he sits down with Trump.
'He cannot accept them, yet he cannot refuse them either,' the Bush Foundation's Lee said, noting that Trump's primary negotiating tool — and ultimate leverage — remains the threat of U.S. troop withdrawals.
Trump 'can publicly question the need for 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea while linking their presence directly to financial contributions,' he said.
That said, the progressive Lee and his Democratic Party would probably be more amenable to accepting a reduction of U.S. forces than his ousted conservative predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol, would have been — especially if this is linked to a relatively swift transfer of the wartime operational control (OPCON) of South Korean forces from Washington to Seoul.
'Progressives have long sought greater independence in their alliance with Washington,' Klingner said.
Swift OPCON transfer is something Colby has also been in favor of, a signal that the U.S. could agree to lowering the requirements for a conditions-based transfer.
It's unclear how Seoul would react to Washington's proposal on China though, with Klingner saying that President Lee would be reluctant to 'publicly' accept any South Korean role in a coalition to defend Taiwan, which China — Seoul's biggest trading partner — claims as its own.
'The Korean public is hesitant to aggravate China and even former President Yoon resisted U.S. entreaties to even more publicly criticize Chinese transgressions as Japanese administrations had done,' Klingner said.
Defense and security will be the primary focus of the first summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean leader Lee Jae Myung, observers say. |
REUTERS
Lee could quietly consent to the U.S. reorientation while requesting Washington's support for an accelerated OPCON transfer as well as his outreach to North Korea. In turn, observers say, the South Korean leader could use the U.S. plans on China as a chance to signal to Pyongyang that it is time to pursue a 'peace regime' on the Korean Peninsula.
As for increasing defense spending, experts say that while Lee will try to resist U.S. demands, he will face an uphill battle, something that other American allies in the region such as Japan and Australia have also grappled with.
Seoul's strategy, particularly on cost-sharing for U.S. troops, will likely involve countering with a formula that ties increases to inflation and personnel costs.
'While the final figure will be significantly higher, the Lee government will aim for a multiyear deal to avoid this high-stakes drama recurring annually,' the Bush Foundation's Lee said, with others pointing out that such costs could be included in the calculations for any defense spending hike.
As for ties with Japan, while the issue of trilateral cooperation with Tokyo will likely be mentioned, experts say it will probably be a low-priority item.
'Expect a brief mention in the joint statement about the importance of cooperation," said analyst Lee.
Given how crucial the meeting is expected to be, it's unclear how much progress the two governments will be able to make — let alone be willing to advertise.
'The stakes of the summit with Trump are existential for Lee's presidency,' said analyst Lee, indicating that the South Korean leader must navigate between the U.S. president's demands, China's red lines and a deeply polarized public at home.
'Essentially, if President Lee returns to Seoul with the alliance intact and without having irrevocably alienated Beijing, he will be able to declare the summit a success,' he added.
'A calm news cycle following the summit would be the clearest sign of victory.'
